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In Niger, curbing population growth is ranked as one of the most critical issues the country must tackle to reduce the severe levels of poverty, malnutrition, and illness it currently endures. The solution might seem clear in such an extreme situation, but what about a country like Australia, which has seen population growth come to a standstill over the past two years? Is this a good or bad thing?
Australia’s Population Growth Trends
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in the year to March 2021, the Australian population grew by just 0.1 percent, or 35,700 people. Much of this was due to a fall in net migration into Australia because of the COVID-19 pandemic, but it also reflects a long-term decline in the birth rate. If this trend continues, it could have dramatic consequences for Australians that go beyond enjoying fewer baby showers on a personal level, to its potential impact on economic growth and the standard of living we all enjoy.
The so-called ‘baby bust’ theory suggests that a fall in the number of babies born will foreshadow a period of gradual economic decline. With insufficient workers to look after the elderly and the slow contraction of consumer demand, economic growth and prosperity could be dragged down. This scenario paints a concerning picture of a future where the workforce is unable to support an aging population, leading to increased pressure on social services and a potential decline in living standards.
A More Sustainable and Equitable Society?
On the other hand, some believe that a slowing birth rate will herald a better, more sustainable, and equitable society. Fewer workers could lead to a rise in wage growth, something that has been stagnant for more than a decade in Australia, and better working conditions. It could also create a more inclusive workforce for women, ethnic minorities, and those with disabilities. With fewer people competing for jobs, there could be more opportunities for underrepresented groups to enter and thrive in the workforce.
Innovation and increased productivity should climb as employers find ways to create and achieve more with fewer staff. This could accelerate the demise of so-called low-skilled jobs in the economy, replaced with jobs people want to do. Employers might invest more in technology and training to enhance productivity, leading to a more skilled and efficient workforce.
Finally, it is hard to overestimate the benefit that a smaller population will have, not just in Australia but globally, on the environment and attempts to move to a more sustainable way of life. Sustainable Population Australia suggests that having one fewer baby saves each parent 20 times the level of reduced CO2 emissions of living without a car and about 70 times that of living without eating meat. Reducing the birth rate might be a key factor in facing the challenge of global warming, as fewer people would mean less strain on natural resources and lower overall carbon emissions.
Migration and Population Growth
Against all of this, population growth rates can vary considerably due to migration levels, including temporary, economic, and forced migration, as well as birth rates. Up until mid-2018, Australia was recording one of the highest population growth rates in the world at 1.5 percent, ranking it fifth among OECD countries, with the long-term trend since the Second World War being 1.6 percent. Migration has historically played a significant role in Australia’s population growth, and changes in migration policies or global events could significantly impact future growth rates.
‘Baby Bust’ Future Outlook
Only time will tell whether the fall in population growth rates remains or whether it will return to its long-term average as the economy moves away from the impact of the pandemic and life returns to normal. Policymakers will need to carefully consider the implications of population trends and develop strategies to address the potential challenges and opportunities that arise. Balancing economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability will be key to ensuring a prosperous future for all Australians.
While the need to curb population growth in Niger is clear due to its extreme circumstances, Australia’s situation presents a more complex picture. The potential benefits of a lower birth rate, such as improved wage growth, better working conditions, and environmental sustainability, must be weighed against the challenges of supporting an aging population and maintaining economic growth. As we navigate these changes, it is crucial to consider the long-term impacts and develop policies that promote a balanced and sustainable future.
The role of the baby in these discussions is significant, as each baby born today will shape the future demographic and economic landscape of the country. Babies represent the future workforce, the future consumers, and the future leaders. By understanding the implications of each baby born, we can better prepare for the future and ensure a sustainable and prosperous society. Whether it is about nurturing each baby or considering the environmental impact of every additional baby, these conversations are crucial. In the end, every baby holds the potential to contribute to the social and economic fabric of the nation, making the discussion about population growth inseparable from the story of the baby.
See Australia’s population projections from the ABS.
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